Thinking about the traffic topic I talked about earlier with my response to the R-J editorial, I did a little futurism and came up with this report: "Northwestern Nevada in 2025: Reflections on growth patterns since 2006"
Come with me to the year 2025, as I explore what Northern Nevada looks like then. You may be surprised, possibly not, and mostly you'll probably be set upon by an overwhelming sense of disbelief. That's ok, this is SciFi. (so don't take it too seriously!)
NWNV in 2025 is truly an integrated 6-county area. Washoe, Storey and Churchill make up the northern west-east corridor and Carson/Douglas, Lyon and Churchill make up the southern west-east corridor. Northern Lyon county's population has swelled to 200,000, Fallon is at 100,000, Yerington: 100,000, Douglas County: 100,000, and Carson City: 100,000. Reno-Sparks has 500,000 people.
All that growth along the Highway 50 and I-80 corridors was not surprising to anyone who was paying attention in 2006. The Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center, perched along I-80, drove demand for a north-south link between the two highways. Growth in Lyon County, which in 2005 was the 11th fastest growing county in the country, drove continued expansion of Highway 50 until a grade-separated, controlled-access facility was built along the corridor from Carson City to Silver Springs. Later, a second freeway link was added between Fernley and Silver Springs, which was complemented by a freeway link between Fernley and Fallon.
This road-building boom coupled with expansions at the Silver Springs airfield and international economic development efforts by the highest levels of state government got the commerce trade humming in NWNV by 2015. Populations in Fallon and Yerington had blossomed up to 50,000 each by this time, when advances in desert agricultural techniques hit. This new form of industrialized agriculture was partially automated, but required humans involved in the growing facilities. This swelled the population further. Those seeking escape from the escalating price of land closer to the Sierra rounded out the mix.
Perhaps most surprising would be the Nevada Railways commuter rail system, put in place beginning in 2015 to link the population centers together with regular service not impacted by traffic on the roadways. This public transportation service was funded locally by a 5-county bond issue and constructed over the course of 7 years to eventually sport 200 miles of track. A partial high-speed route, it could do the 45 mile run from Reno to Carson City via TRIC in 30 minutes, making it highly competitive with the I-580 freeway completed a decade prior.
A planned road between Yerington and Minden-Gardnerville through the mountains never was built, increasing pressure on SR-208 through Wellington. Lack of rail access to Yerington would cause tempers to flare up on Alt-95.
Now with 1.1 million people, NWNV was beginning to receive some acknowledgment from the nation and Southern Nevada, though for its own part, Clark County's population had swelled to 3.5 million and was finally starting to slow down. A planned rail link between NWNV and SNV metros had thus far failed to materialize; Clark County continued to be averse to investments in non-rubber tire transportation infrastructure.
Green activists, while impressed with the rail line and the continued investment in development of green technologies in Reno-Sparks, were dismayed at the low-grade sprawl which would permanently alter the landscape of 90 square miles. Densification had occurred primarily in a large-lot semi-rural suburban pattern which had come to be closely associated with Northern Nevada by 2025. These lots, many supporting equestrian lifestyles and almost all linked to the outside world exclusively by car, were doing the environment no favors. Legislation passed in the 2019 Nevada Legislature required sewer and water connections in all densified areas statewide, much to the chagrin of property owners. By 2025, 80% of the areas had complied, and a regionally planned, interconnected water system was just beginning to appear.
On the water front, it was not all bad news. The modern agricultural techniques greatly changed the evaporative water use situation on the much-strained Truckee, Carson and Walker River systems. Water loss due to evaporation decreased by a full 60% while output increased that much using the same amount of water. Evaporative control technologies were developed and employed all throughout the irrigation systems, further contributing to declines in water loss due to evaporation. Decades of effort were beginning to pay off in the Walker Lake basin, where the saline concentration was at a 50-year low and shoreline was being lost to rising water levels.
Global warming had not proved particularly detrimental to Northwestern Nevada in 2025. Rising sea levels and atmospheric conditions that had established erosion and regular hurricane-like conditions in coastal cities had also created new high-power storms which would march over the rainshadow and straight into high pressure fronts of cold air, dumping massive amounts of precipitation at high altitudes in early fall. Warmer early winters would melt some of that snow, but most years a "second winter" would occur usually in early February. Adroit atmospheric scientists at the Desert Research Institute would notice this pattern early, and drive construction of cisterns at high elevations to capture all the moisture in whatever form it fell, providing the ability to regulate runoff year-round.
Had they not employed technology or been slower to react to obvious changes, the citizens of NWNV might have found themselves in a more precarious position in 2025. Continued liberalization in formerly restrictive places opened up new markets around the world. American capital continued to move offshore to produce consumer goods increasingly in demand on the American market as the new leisure class and a well-heeled retired population dug in and prepared to enjoy themselves.
It was due to these global factors that an increased focus on air freight and Asian developing markets was able to drive the evolution of the commercial sector in NWNV. The increased investment in new agricultural techniques increased the state's contribution to the national food store and export at a time when California and the Midwest were seeing rising declines in production due to water restrictions and soil decimation.
Northwestern Nevada in 2025 is in a very interesting place. As always, there are important choices to be made moving forward. As the world has taken notice, a rush on land and increasing speculation has caused inflation. New residents need good jobs which don't always prove to be available in sufficient numbers. Despite key investments in public transportation systems, great distances between destinations in the metro area mean plenty of waiting and an overwhelming feeling that it is impossible to escape from the crowds; something many found themselves coming to Nevada for in the first place. Like most things in 2025, this echoes the situation in 2006 and shows that supporting a growing population requires hard choices and forward thinking.
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